Speaker Mike Johnson Tees Up National Trans Sports Ban for Expedited Consideration in Newly Released Rules Package
The GOP is indicating that rewriting civil rights law to ban trans people from sports, who make up 0.008% of NCAA athletes, is a top legislative priority for the party this year.
Just in time for the new year, Speaker Mike Johnson laid out his priorities for 2025 today in a new rules package proposal for the House of Representatives in the incoming 119th Congress. The rules package, which sets various procedures for how the House will run for the next two years, includes several notable changes from the previous Congress such as requiring nine GOP members backing a resolution to oust the speaker rather than one.
The rules package previews what the GOP’s top legislative priorities might include this year, as it includes a provision for expedited consideration of several bills that the GOP wants to push through early on in the term. The rules package severely limits debate and procedural motions that could otherwise slow consideration of the bills on the House floor. The complete list of bills include various border proposals and voter ID bills, but the very first bill listed on the package is a national trans sports ban for student athletes (in college or K-12).
Although the full text of this bill has not yet been released or officially filed, the summary indicates ambiguous criteria for who is a “biological male” or “biological female,” which could impact many intersex athletes who have genetics that differ from their reproductive biology. Intersex athletes, such as those with genetic conditions like Swyer (“XY”) Syndrome have a long history of being unfairly targeted for having the “wrong” genetics or body.
Requiring that sex under Title IX of the Education Amendments of 1972 must be defined as sex based on biology at birth could have severe consequences for trans rights beyond sports, as it counters the Supreme Court’s textualist interpretation of Title VII of the Civil Rights Act written by Justice Gorsuch in Bostock vs. Clayton County which protects trans people under sex discrimination laws.
It’s worth noting that Speaker Mike Johnson’s speakership this year is far from guaranteed due to the GOP’s narrow majority, and this rules package will also require near unanimous agreement from the GOP caucus. Rep. Thomas Massie has already registered his opposition to Speaker Johnson, and he can only afford two defectors in the vote. President Trump has endorsed Speaker Johnson, and the House must have elected a Speaker by January 6th in order to certify his election on time.
GOP internal dysfunction could delay or thwart their efforts to pass anti-trans legislation, as the House has a busy schedule this year as the GOP-led Congress must certify Trump’s election, raise the debt ceiling by June, fund the government by March, and quickly pass a reconciliation bill that funds Trump’s immigration priorities. All of this must pass when the GOP only has a two seat majority in the House until special elections triggered by several GOP resignations to join the Trump administration are held, at which point they will have a five seat majority.
However, the GOP has little internal disagreement on attacking trans rights and it is likely that this rules package represents their top legislative priorities in the first few months of this year.
In order for the anti-trans bill to pass into law once it is officially filed, it will require a majority of votes in the House, and 60 votes in the Senate. The GOP has enough votes to pass this through the House without any Democrats, but they cannot overcome a Senate filibuster on this bill without the votes of at least seven Senate Democrats. Trump is highly likely to sign the bill into law if it reaches his desk.
Media and political narratives on the trans sports issue have failed to recognize the the science that shows trans girls on puberty blockers have zero biological advantage compared to cis girls, and trans women who went through male puberty largely lose any biological advantage over cis women after two years on HRT.
This bill could also force trans men to compete with cis women, despite the fact that trans men take testosterone for their transition which would also give them an “unfair” biological advantage over cis women.
In addition, many cis women naturally have higher levels of testosterone in their bodies due to medical conditions such as polycystic ovarian syndrome, which could also cause an “unfair” biological advantage over other cis women. The average height of an NBA player is over 6 feet 6 inches, demonstrating the biological advantage tall people have over their peers in basketball. But no one argues cis people should be excluded in federal law from participating in sports based on natural variance in their bodies, only trans and intersex people (and sometimes black women).
The popular narratives also fail to acknowledge the fact that these bans target an extraordinarily small number of people—just 0.008% (40 of more than 500,000) of athletes in the NCAA are transgender. Trans sports bans unequivocally have no moral or scientific justification and do not protect women—cis or trans. If Republicans truly care about protecting women’s sports, they should focus their energy on far more salient and widespread issues such as rampant sexual harassment and misogyny against athletes participating in women’s sports.
Several House Democrats, such as Tom Suozzi and Seth Moulton, have recently questioned whether Democrats should continue to support trans equality on these issues despite the fact their opinions go counter to the science of the issue, and despite evidence which indicates that trans rights did not hurt Democrats in the 2024 election.
81 House Democrats and 37 Senate Democrats voted last month to pass the NDAA which included a provision banning healthcare for trans kids on the military insurance TRICARE program. The NDAA was signed into law by President Biden and became the first anti-LGBTQ+ legislation to pass into law since Bill Clinton was president.
My recommendation for trans people and allies right now is to keep awareness of bills like these, but try not to panic or worry too much just yet. We have a long year ahead of us, and you should conserve your energy. If you do want to express your energy, contact your Senator or House Representative in the new year and express your strong opposition to this bill, especially once it is filed. I also highly encourage you to start organizing your friends and your local community for community self-defense and political action. Local action, not national action, will define our year going forwards.
Like many others in the community, I have felt frustrated and disappointed by the extreme bias and misinformation that pervades journalism covering trans issues in mainstream media, which has only worsened in recent months as many legacy outlets are already kissing the ring for incoming President Trump. I’m hoping to stop this alarming trend of misinformation and bigotry polluting mainstream media outlets by setting an example with high quality, reader-supported independent journalism. By raising the bar and providing meaningful competition to legacy outlets run by out-of-touch billionaires, we can counter hate and lies with truth and love.
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